On Friday when China unveiled its twelve point so-called peace plan for Ukraine, President Zelensky said in a press conference in Kyiv he would like to meet Xi Jinping to discuss the proposals.
There's a sentence, an intro, that would have looked implausible or unimaginable a year ago this weekend, when it was day two of the full invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Then the Ukrainians were given a few days at best, even by their friends. The US, Britain and Canada, governments that tried to warn Germany, France and Italy, and were not believed, thought the capital would be overrun in a few days. Zelensky would have to flee and his country would be left fighting a partisan war of resistance against the mighty Russian occupier.
Instead, a year on, Zelensky is still in power in Kyiv and it is President Putin, the Russian tyrant, who has been humiliated.
Ukraine has not won yet, though. Russia has almost 20% of Ukrainian territory and it continues to batter and brutalise its smaller, brave neighbour. While allies have poured in more than $100bn of military aid already, this spring is another dangerous moment in the conflict. Soviet-style, Russia continues to throw tens of thousands of conscripts and mercenaries into battle. Ukraine is short of ammunition and at some point there may be more Russian breakthroughs. Weight of numbers has worked for Russia before.
Casualty figures are difficult to divine, say Ukraine's allies. Several recent estimates, from US officials and others, suggest Russia has sustained casualties, fatalities and injuried, of more than 180,000, maybe even 200,000. If the mooted estimate of a 3:1 ratio, injured to killed, is correct then somewhere between 40,000 and 50,000 Russians have lost their lives. The Ukrainians claim it is above 100,000, but they would say that for obvious reasons. If the ratio is wrong, and Russia has lost 20,000 or so dead, that is still in just one year nearly ten times the total of US deaths in Afghanistan sustained over twenty years of fighting the Taliban.
Even at the lower end those are staggering numbers for an army outside the context of the First and Second World Wars. Modern military doctrine and improved medical practice in the field means advanced armies can fight and lose fewer people.
Ukraine has also sustained heavy losses. Military casualties seem to be lower (perhaps around 100,000) and the ratio of injured to dead is reported to be much higher for the Ukrainian side They are defending their home territory and have better medical facilities behind the front line than the Russian conscripts and mercenaries being chucked into the meat-grinder by the madman in Moscow.
With this level of loss and misery, it is hardly surprising that there is a discussion among policymakers about whether and how peace talks or reported on Friday that allies of Ukraine, among them Germany and France, are urging Zelensky to consider peace talks.
Right on cue, up popped the Chinese government. After having had the red carpet rolled out for him at the Munich Security Conference, China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, met Putin last week in Moscow. On Friday, China published a plan for a ceasefire.
As President Biden put it: “Putin’s applauding it, so how could it be any good? I’ve seen nothing in the plan that would indicate that there is something that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia, if the Chinese plan were followed.”
China's plan to set itself up as the peace broker won’t work, clearly. How could it when Russia is its ally? But the manoeuvre is deeply revealing because it shows an uncomfortable China struggling to square several circles. Its leadership is trying to stick close to Russia, while trying to look conciliatory on Ukraine in a bid to divide the West. There are reports Beijing is considering extending its help for Russia to delivering arms or drones.
As James Kynge of the FT reported this week, China is in an economic bind. After the Zero-Covid policy disaster it needs to get the show back on the road and wants to restore better relations with its trading partners, the largest of which is Germany. Germany has been China’s biggest trading partner since 2016.
Indeed, Germany’s economic problems are the backdrop to China’s peace offer. The country is on the brink of recession, with German GDP shrinking by 0.4% in the final three months of last year, according to the latest data from Destatis, the official statistics agency. Consumers and investment have been hit by high energy prices. This is bad news for Chinese exporters selling to Germany, as there will be less demand in a recession, and for German companies selling to China the struggle with energy prices makes it more difficult to stay competitive.
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Full text in pdf - China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis - Source Xinhua - Editor - huaxia - 24.02.23
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