Russian fighters are trying to encircle the defenders.
IF YOU IMAGINE that the front lines in Donbas are well-defined, you should think again. Oleksandr, an officer with Ukraine’s 79th brigade, watches the battlefield near the frontline town of Kurakhove on control-room screens every day. The Russians are mostly in front of Ukrainian positions, he says, but sometimes cause havoc kilometres behind them. For the wretched pairs of soldiers in scattered positions at the edge of what he calls the kill zone, it is more often than not a one-way mission. As many as 18 Russian soldiers might die to dislodge two worn, hungry Ukrainians. But eventually, they will. “We are exchanging lives and territory for time and the opponent’s resources.”
For the past two months, Russia has poured most of those resources into attacking the logistical hub of Pokrovsk, just north-west of Kurakhove. The push advanced at an alarming rate, and even accelerated after Ukraine launched an operation inside Russia that was ostensibly designed to reduce the pressure. A Ukrainian fightback in the last week has stabilised the westernmost lines. But soldiers report the Russians are regrouping along a wider front north and south of Kurakhove—an apparent effort to encircle Ukrainian forces there. The centre of the fighting has moved to the towns of Ukrainsk and Halytsynivka, about 15km north of Kurakhove, both visible from a distance by the plumes of dark smoke.
Yury, a soldier attached to the 59th brigade based near Ukrainsk, says Ukrainian losses have been significant. A reinforcement of inexperienced infantrymen sent from Ukraine’s 71st brigade were wiped out. “Over three days, 100 became zero. Some ran, some fell.” It is not all one-way traffic. A Ukrainian counter-attack on Friday, using tanks and infantry, pushed the Russians back somewhat. They are out of the southern districts of nearby Selydove. But the situation remains precarious. The Russians are still focused on control of the roads leading to Pokrovsk. “We have been fighting with our last guard, and have thrown our logistics guys into the trenches.”
For soldiers farther south, the possibility of encirclement remains a worry, though for now there are only hints of it. Roads that were passable no longer are. Shops and cafés have shut their doors. “Difficulties getting a cup of coffee might not seem our biggest problem,” says a commander with the 21st brigade, “but it is an indication things are getting worse.”
For those near Kurakhove, whose pre-war population of 21,000 is down to 5,000, the most obvious change is in logistics. Fuel trucks, supply vehicles and headquarters have been pushed back, hiding from the tightening Russian noose. Resupply is no longer quick: getting mortars or Javelin anti-tank rockets takes half a day at best. Evacuating the wounded is more complicated. There are field hospitals nearby to stabilise the worst off. But with the main road to Pokrovsk now cut, fewer make it to a full-fledged hospital in time.
Russian tactics have not changed substantially since the fall of Avdiivka in February. Then as now, they depend on glide bombs and an artillery superiority that still ranges from at least 3:1 up to 10:1 in some sections. The operations are usually led by groups of two or three infantry soldiers, usually dismounted, though recently some have been observed using Lada sedans with the doors removed for a quick exit, Mad Max-style. The groups prowl forward at any opportunity. Andriy, an officer with the 79th brigade, reckons 80% of the Russians do not make it. But the other 20% find ways to get in behind the Ukrainian positions, and sometimes are lost to Ukrainian eyes. “They know that we won’t counterattack because we don’t have the men to do it, so they crawl wherever they can.”
Recently the Russian pressure has grown more insistent and wider, spanning a front from Pokrovsk to Vuhledar in the south. This, Ukrainian soldiers believe, is evidence their enemy has been reinforced with new reserves. The wide front gives the Russians more options to attack, says Mike Temper, the nom-de-guerre of a mortar-battery commander with the 21st battalion of Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade. “They are using their numerical advantage to see gaps in our defence, and develop where they can.”
The Russians are also pressing their advantages in drones and electronic warfare. This is especially evident in their search and strike system, which links advanced reconnaissance drones to strike drones, artillery and aviation. “Physicist”, a tank commander with the 68th, says the Russian air force and artillery can react almost in real time; anything that moves and is not protected is destroyed. His tank drivers consequently now mostly work as static artillery units, operating from closed positions, and much farther back.
Physicist, whose nom-de-guerre stems from a peacetime job as a science teacher in Kherson, says Ukraine’s weakness stems from a simple equation: low manpower plus low ammunition. The two, he says, are linked in ways that might not seem immediately obvious. When America’s Congress held back supplies of weapons over six months from October 2023, Ukraine had to throw men at the problem. “When we had no shells we used more infantry on the front to stop a breakthrough, which meant losing many skilled soldiers.” The failure of Ukraine’s mobilisation programme exacerbated the problems. Oleksandr from the 79th reckons his brigade has already lost more soldiers in 2024 than in the previous 18 months.
The pushback around Pokrovsk—the Ukrainians’ first for months in the area—has given soldiers hope that they will be able to fight off an encirclement. Perhaps the Russians have even overstretched. But most remain cautious. Ukraine’s key to staying in the game is taking care of its men, says Mike Temper, and that means a flexible approach to holding territory. It cannot win by competing in butchery, he says. Oleksandr wonders if the moment might have passed or if Ukraine is not already fighting on Russia’s terms. “The worst thing is that we’ve all become used to death,” he says. “That’s it: the concept of human life, human losses, human blood. No longer tragedy, just statistics.” ■
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This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline “The Russian push”
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